How does gendered labour market trends and the pay gap translates into the projected GPG? A comparative analysis of five countries with low, middle and high GPGs

Referenz

Dekkers, G., van den Bosch, K., Barslund, M., Kirn, T., Baumann, N., Kump, N., Liegeois, P., Moreira, A., & Stropnik, N. (2021). How does gendered labour market trends and the pay gap translates into the projected GPG? A comparative analysis of five countries with low, middle and high GPGs. Presented at the 8th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association, online.

Publikationsart

Präsentation auf wissenschaftlicher Konferenz

Abstract

Building on the European Commission’s Ageing Working Group demographic and macroeconomic forecasts (see Ageing Report, 2018 and 2021), and making use of the heuristic power of dynamic microsimulation models, we project the development of the Gender Pension Gap (GPG) up to 2070. As the GPG varies widely across European countries, we make these projections for countries with a high (Luxembourg), medium (Switzerland, Belgium, Portugal) and low GPG (Slovenia). We show that the GPG is likely to fall significantly - particularly in Slovenia and Portugal, where the gap is expected to drop to close to 5 percent in 2030, and to have essentially disappeared by 2040. In Belgium and Luxembourg, the gap is reduced to 7 and 5 percent in 2050, respectively, more than two-thirds below the 2020 level. In Switzerland, the GPG in the 2nd pension pillar among pensioners aged 65-74 would decrease from 58 to 40 percent between 2018 and 2070, whereas the GPG of the first pillar would remain small.

Forschung

Mitarbeiter

• Dr. Tanja Kirn
• Nicolas Baumann, BSc

Einrichtungen

• Center for Economics

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